Fact and fiction in postseason baseball

By Paul White 

Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington said his players didn't get as much rest as he would have liked during the final week of the season, but getting a possible home advantage was worth it.

But is he right?

"After we won the division, then we had to try to play for home-field advantage," Washington said. "And I really couldn't get them the rest that I wanted."PHOTOS: Last 30 World Series Champions

That was before Saturday's 15-5 victory against the Detroit Tigers — in Texas — that sent the Rangers to the World Series.

The Rangers played hard and used their regulars right to the end of the season to make certain they finished with the second-best record in the American League, one game better than the Tigers, just for this eventuality.

Was it really worth it? His team's results support Washington's approach. And it worked in the National League, too, where the Milwaukee Brewers won a battle with the Arizona Diamondbacks for home advantage on the final day of the season and then beat them in five games all won by the home teams.

Home-field advantage is one of those items that are accepted as fact in the postseason, one of the things managers and players cite to back up their moves or explain away a game or series that didn't go according to plan.

Some really are facts, others mere myths, still others debatable enough that they're how managers earn their money.

We take a look at some of them:

Home advantage

So the Rangers and Brewers proved it, right? At least until Milwaukee was eliminated Sunday at home by the St. Louis Cardinals.

In fact, of this year's six postseason series, four ended with the home team losing the final game. Two of those — the New York Yankees against the Tigers and the Philadelphia Phillies against the Cardinals — were lost in a winner-take-all final game.

Ask the stunned crowds at Yankee Stadium and Citizens Bank Park about home advantage.

Last year, teams with home advantage lost three of the seven series.

As for this year's World Series, the Cardinals have home advantage for the first time this postseason, not because they earned it on the field — Texas had 96 wins to St. Louis' 90 — but because of a home run by Milwaukee's Prince Fielder.

Fielder's homer won the All-Star Game for the NL and thus decided World Series home-field advantage.

Since that All-Star result became the determining factor in 2003, the team with home advantage has won five of eight World Series, though none has gone to a seventh game. Teams with the better regular-season record are 4-4 over the same period.

Over the same period, 15 series have gone to an ultimate game — Game 5 in a division series or Game 7 in a league championship series or World Series — and the visiting team has won nine times.

Three days' rest

It happens every fall. Managers cannot resist taking their best pitchers out of their normal routine and staring them on three days' rest — or one day sooner than normal.

"We've been around a long time. We know the risks," Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said before sending Chris Carpenter against the Phillies in Game 2 of the division series. "But you know, you have to prove to your team that you're going to take your best shot."

Is it really a team's best shot? Carpenter lasted three innings in that game, allowing four runs, five hits and three walks, though St. Louis rallied to win 5-4.

"I did the best I could," Carpenter said. "Did I pitch great? No. But we won, and that's all that matters."

Same for Milwaukee's Zack Greinke, who faced Arizona the same day on three days' rest. He left after five innings in a 4-4 tie, and the Brewers eventually won 9-4.

"It felt real good out there," Greinke said. "All my pitches were coming under pretty well and pretty sharp. I guess the fastball must have been a little flat."

Greinke's analysis underscores the real debate — effectiveness rather than injury.

Detroit manager Jim Leyland repeatedly deflected suggestions he use ace Justin Verlander on short rest this postseason, citing his unwillingness to risk the health of arguably his team's best asset.

There's no evidence of damage being caused by pitchers reverting to a regimen more common several decades ago. But there's plenty to back up the effects of Greinke's flat fastball and other fat pitches.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, 43 postseason games between 2000 and 2010 were started by pitchers with three days' rest. One caveat is that the data show rest only within the playoffs, so would not include starts such as Greinke's and Carpenter's because their three days were between the regular season and playoffs.

Still, the results are cause for pause. Those pitchers are 11-20 in the 43 games. They have a combined 5.05 ERA and averaged five innings per start.

Only one of those starts was a complete game: Josh Beckett's 2003 World Series-clinching shutout of the Yankees for the Florida Marlins.

Just one other time since 2002 has a starter on three days' rest gone more than seven innings: the Yankees' Andy Pettitte in 2003.

So what managers must really weigh is whether something that might barely meet the criteria for a quality start (six innings, three runs) is better than what a team's fourth or fifth starter might provide.

Pivotal games

Winning the first game of a series is important. That's one we hear often. But others cite Game 3 as the one that can swing a series.

Recent history doesn't provide a definitive answer, other than maybe there isn't a pivotal game.

In the 35 best-of-seven series since 2000, Games 2 and 4 have contributed to more success than Games 1 and 3.

The series winners have won Game 2 26 times and Game 4 26 times. The Game 1 winner has won the series 23 times and the Game 3 winner 22 times.

The DH advantage

National League managers cite the designated hitter as an aspect of the World Series that can be unfair. The issue arises most often for games in AL parks, where NL teams use the DH.

Few NL rosters are constructed with a made-to-order DH. At best, the players on the bench are platoon players — or speed guys or defensive specialists. Few of them can match the offensive prowess of most AL DHs.

AL managers, though, counter with laments over the loss of a significant part of their offense, especially if it's a player who seldom or never plays the field.

The NL guys have a better case.

Since 2000, NL teams have an 8-20 record in AL parks, a .286 winning percentage. Granted, the AL has fared better overall during that period — winning six of the 11 series, including all three sweeps.

But NL teams' record at home is a significantly better 26-32 or .448. So it seems losing the DH isn't nearly a hardship for AL teams as finding one is for the NL.