Turkey, carols, and mum in an apron slaving away with a happy glow on her face. Dad vacuuming up the pine needles and swearing over the broken tree lights. A tribute to a way of life that's almost come and gone.
In my thirties, I still go home for Christmas. The pussycat is no longer there to shred the piles of wrapping paper but two other rather important individuals are. In a year of global upheaval, share market capitulation and scary uncertainty, I have one set of variables on which I can unconditionally depend. I am unbelievably lucky.
However, in business life, where we can all argue we make our own luck, there are no such safeguards and backstops and absolutes.
This year, as top analysts' theories got constantly torpedoed by the markets each quarter, it took an incredible amount of faith and effort just to stick to the plan. There have been some twinkles at the end of a tough tunnel though; a smattering of bankable new equity and bond issuance for Kiwi investors in these last few months. There is the lure of more to come in 2012.With one exception. In October 1929, and perhaps precipitating the Great Depression, stampede panic caused markets to lose around 50 per cent of their value in two weeks. Brokerage houses, often lending out two thirds of the price tag of any given stock to their clients, were blown apart along with their investors. Rockefeller tried to step in and shore things up in the first two terrible days by buying big chunks of stock.
It halted the index from completely disintegrating, but the damage was done.
The crash set off a worldwide run on United States gold deposits, 4000 banks went bust and it was 12 years before things started to get any better.But, eventually, things did get better, which is the point of my mentioning it.
We will not see a repeat of 1929 but this v-word, volatility, is going to be around for a while. It's going to sit on your shoulder and make itself heard. When I was a little junior sharebroker, we once cut a presentation short because, shock horror, the SP500 was down, wait for it, 2 per cent overnight.
Now the major indexes can swing up to 5 per cent per day. Just because we are now used to seeing hundreds of billions of dollars come and go in short order doesn't make it any easier.
We have volatility fatigue.
I call it fluctuation reticence and can't say when we should expect to be rid of it. What I can say, and what I always say, because I believe it, is that, despite everything, we keep going. You can make money from it. Man your guns, get brave. It will all pay off.
For now though, it is time to leave investing to one side, just for a moment, because it is Christmas.
There is no broadband at the family farm, so next week I cannot stay up all night looking at stock prices and exchange rates and worrying about them for you. Do excuse me, just for a few days. Happy holidays and a very Merry Christmas.
Caroline Ritchie is an authorised financial adviser with Forsyth Barr in Napier. She can be contacted on 0800 367 227 or caroline.ritchie@forsythbarr.co.nz.
This column is general in nature and should not be regarded as personalised investment advice. Disclosure statements are available on request and free of charge.
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