Ladbrokes offering money back on non-runners
With the two best-known British steeplechasers in training taking on the most exciting staying novice chaser of the season, the betting market for the Betfred Gold Cup at Cheltenham is already well established.
There were predictably few surprises among the 34 entries revealed on Wednesday for the race and, in an attempt to drum up some business, Ladbrokes and the race sponsors are both offering prices on a non-runner, no bet basis.
That makes taking an ante-post position considerably more appealing and the two I would want to be with on that basis are Grands Crus (8-1 with Betfred) and Synchronised (12-1 with Ladbrokes) given that if either make it to the race, they will both surely be trading at shorter prices on the day.
David Pipe says he still has not made his mind up about the Gold Cup for Grands Crus but the fact that he is considering Cheltenham's Argento Chase as the horse's next race surely suggests he is, at the least, dipping his toe into the water against older rivals. Staged over the same course as the Gold Cup, but over a furlong shorter trip, it will give Pipe a good idea as to where Grands Crus stands, with the consistent Time For Rupert set to provide a useful benchmark in opposition.
I would expect Grands Crus to go off as favourite to beat Time For Rupert in that race and victory could both see his odds crash for the Gold Cup and effectively force Pipe and owner Roger Stanley to aim high instead of sticking to novice company in the RSA Chase. And if he does not run, then you get your money back.
As a punter, I find Jonjo O'Neill one of the most frustrating stables to follow, but he is a very hard man to dislike. Despite the times that I have cursed the betting market's remarkable ability to prove a more accurate guide to his horse's prospects than the formbook, I cannot pretend I was not pleased for him when Synchronised upset a few reputations in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Plenty of pundits have been ready to put down that form and Quito de la Roque almost certainly did not quite run up to form in third while runner-up Rubi Light may not have fully seen out the trip. But the Synchronised who won that race is simply not the same horse as the one who slogged round for third in the Midlands National last season, dragging his hind legs through most of the fences on his way round and looking like he would need six miles to reach top gear.
A promising return over hurdles at Aintree in October was followed by a really good run in the valuable brush hurdle race at Haydock on Betfair Chase day, where he came home with such a rattle that it looked like he had only joined in at the top of the straight.
Impressions that Synchronised had for some reason turned a corner in his form were confirmed when he attacked his fences on his way to a comprehensive Leopardstown victory that has left O'Neill in doubt that his horse has to be considered "a real Gold Cup contender".
The trainer says that the choice now is whether they take Synchronised to run in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown on 12 February or wait for Cheltenham the following month, but that decision will have to be taken in conjunction with the horse's owner, JP McManus.
"I couldn't have been more pleased with him in the Lexus and he's definitely right at the top of his game, but it was a hard race and when he came home he knew he'd been in a fight," O'Neill told me on Wednesday.
"He's not the biggest and he does like a bit of time between his races so we're just waiting to see how long it takes him to come back to himself. He is quite an easy horse to read, thankfully, and we'll hopefully know when he is right again.
"The question is whether the Hennessy is his 'Gold Cup' or whether we take on the big boys at Cheltenham. We'll talk it through with JP and Frank [Berry, racing manager] and see how he is in a couple of weeks' time."
Testing conditions clearly are not essential to Synchronised as he won well enough without them last time, but if the ground were to come up soft at Cheltenham (far more likely since the course established a firm pro-watering policy for the Festival), he could end up at half his present odds given that none of Kauto Star, Long Run or Grands Crus would be guaranteed stayers in testing conditions. O'Neill says he cannot explain the horse's improved form this season, but neither he nor we need to understand it to know at 12-1, with your money back if he does not run, he's worth a bet.
Source http://www.guardian.co.uk
There were predictably few surprises among the 34 entries revealed on Wednesday for the race and, in an attempt to drum up some business, Ladbrokes and the race sponsors are both offering prices on a non-runner, no bet basis.
That makes taking an ante-post position considerably more appealing and the two I would want to be with on that basis are Grands Crus (8-1 with Betfred) and Synchronised (12-1 with Ladbrokes) given that if either make it to the race, they will both surely be trading at shorter prices on the day.
David Pipe says he still has not made his mind up about the Gold Cup for Grands Crus but the fact that he is considering Cheltenham's Argento Chase as the horse's next race surely suggests he is, at the least, dipping his toe into the water against older rivals. Staged over the same course as the Gold Cup, but over a furlong shorter trip, it will give Pipe a good idea as to where Grands Crus stands, with the consistent Time For Rupert set to provide a useful benchmark in opposition.
I would expect Grands Crus to go off as favourite to beat Time For Rupert in that race and victory could both see his odds crash for the Gold Cup and effectively force Pipe and owner Roger Stanley to aim high instead of sticking to novice company in the RSA Chase. And if he does not run, then you get your money back.
As a punter, I find Jonjo O'Neill one of the most frustrating stables to follow, but he is a very hard man to dislike. Despite the times that I have cursed the betting market's remarkable ability to prove a more accurate guide to his horse's prospects than the formbook, I cannot pretend I was not pleased for him when Synchronised upset a few reputations in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Plenty of pundits have been ready to put down that form and Quito de la Roque almost certainly did not quite run up to form in third while runner-up Rubi Light may not have fully seen out the trip. But the Synchronised who won that race is simply not the same horse as the one who slogged round for third in the Midlands National last season, dragging his hind legs through most of the fences on his way round and looking like he would need six miles to reach top gear.
A promising return over hurdles at Aintree in October was followed by a really good run in the valuable brush hurdle race at Haydock on Betfair Chase day, where he came home with such a rattle that it looked like he had only joined in at the top of the straight.
Impressions that Synchronised had for some reason turned a corner in his form were confirmed when he attacked his fences on his way to a comprehensive Leopardstown victory that has left O'Neill in doubt that his horse has to be considered "a real Gold Cup contender".
The trainer says that the choice now is whether they take Synchronised to run in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown on 12 February or wait for Cheltenham the following month, but that decision will have to be taken in conjunction with the horse's owner, JP McManus.
"I couldn't have been more pleased with him in the Lexus and he's definitely right at the top of his game, but it was a hard race and when he came home he knew he'd been in a fight," O'Neill told me on Wednesday.
"He's not the biggest and he does like a bit of time between his races so we're just waiting to see how long it takes him to come back to himself. He is quite an easy horse to read, thankfully, and we'll hopefully know when he is right again.
"The question is whether the Hennessy is his 'Gold Cup' or whether we take on the big boys at Cheltenham. We'll talk it through with JP and Frank [Berry, racing manager] and see how he is in a couple of weeks' time."
Testing conditions clearly are not essential to Synchronised as he won well enough without them last time, but if the ground were to come up soft at Cheltenham (far more likely since the course established a firm pro-watering policy for the Festival), he could end up at half his present odds given that none of Kauto Star, Long Run or Grands Crus would be guaranteed stayers in testing conditions. O'Neill says he cannot explain the horse's improved form this season, but neither he nor we need to understand it to know at 12-1, with your money back if he does not run, he's worth a bet.
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